From Anxiety to Opportunity: My Take on Current Market Conditions
Having navigated multiple market cycles throughout my investment career, I can confidently say that the Russian stock market has been facing challenging times, and the current active phase of Ukraine conflict negotiations has created even greater ambiguity. In my experience, even minor statements from political leaders trigger sharp asset price fluctuations, generating additional uncertainty for investors. While media points to November 27 as a decisive date, the actual negotiation timeline remains unpredictable.
Critical Questions Every Investor Should Consider
Speculators vs Long-Term Investors: Who Holds the Advantage?
Practical Insights From Trading Experience
How should investors proceed during ongoing negotiations? Is this environment better suited for speculators or long-term investors? Which securities can withstand increased volatility? What should your portfolio composition look like right now? I’ve examined these questions alongside fellow financial experts.
Recent Diplomatic Developments: Beyond the Headlines
Last night in Geneva, negotiations concluded regarding a 28-point peace plan for Ukraine. Participants included representatives from the United States, European nations, and a Ukrainian delegation. The US contingent featured Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Donald Trump’s special representative Stephen Witkoff. According to Axios, parties made progress on the US president’s proposed settlement plan for the Ukrainian conflict, though multiple media sources indicate the working draft underwent modifications.
Reuters reports that the US peace plan draft again provides Russia with diplomatic advantages in negotiations. Nevertheless, recent media information suggests most provisions have received Ukrainian approval.
Earlier, The Washington Post indicated the White House anticipates initial document signing by US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky, followed by transfer to the Russian side. The United States hopes Ukraine will sign the agreement before Thanksgiving (November 27).
Knowledgeable sources also state that plans are currently being developed for separate negotiations between Russia and the United States. Meanwhile, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov noted that meetings between Russian and American delegations aren’t expected this week.
Donald Trump appears most optimistic. “Is it possible that significant progress is actually happening in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine? Don’t believe it until you see it for yourself, but it’s possible that something good is actually happening. God bless America!” he wrote on his Truth Social network.
Actionable Investment Strategies: Lessons From the Frontlines
Why “News-Driven Markets” Spell Danger for Traders
We’re currently experiencing classic “news-driven market conditions”: high volatility fueled by extreme uncertainty, with sharp movements increasingly driven by headlines rather than fundamentals. Senior financial market analyst at KIT Finance Pavel Verevkin emphasized this point during our discussion. The expert notes that conventional wisdom suggesting this phase ideal for speculators doesn’t hold in practice, since excessive sentiment shifts and low-liquidity evening and morning movements easily trigger stop-losses and rapidly deplete trading accounts. According to Verevkin, the news flow remains contradictory, making real-time interpretation difficult, while psychological pressure mounts alongside mistake frequency even among experienced traders.
The Enduring Power of Long-Term Investment Approaches
Long-term investors have also suffered from market “choppiness,” but their strategy often proves more resilient due to lower turnover and reduced commission costs. From Verevkin’s perspective, such investors should critically avoid guessing each negotiation phase outcome, instead using corrections to gradually accumulate quality securities with already priced-in risks.
Meanwhile, Natalia Malykh, head of equity analysis at FG Finam, warns against chasing the market by buying on strength and selling on weakness. “The market already prices in numerous risks, but doesn’t account for potential key rate reduction and consequent ruble weakening next year. These should become the main index growth drivers. Therefore, you might secure some profits for the active speculative portfolio portion or margin positions, but completely exiting securities now seems unwise,” the expert believes.
Constructing a Defensive Portfolio: My Methodology
Core Principles for Building Portfolio Resilience
Digital Broker analyst Dmitry Vishnevsky advises investors to build portfolios focused on stable, diversified assets during current high volatility conditions, minimizing speculative risks. Among stability and dividend yield leaders, he highlights companies like NOVATEK, InterRAO, Sberbank, and X5, which demonstrate sustainable profitability and adaptability to macroeconomic changes.
Turning Negotiation Periods to Your Advantage
Furthermore, Vishnevsky considers the negotiation period more an opportunity for long-term investors to strengthen positions than for short-term speculation, since fundamental factors outweigh temporary news in structured portfolio formation. “It’s also crucial to consider the Bank of Russia’s macroeconomic policy and tax conditions that will influence capital costs and returns. Thus, focusing on ‘solid papers’ with proven resilience and sound dividend policies seems preferable now to balance potential market fluctuations and ensure long-term growth,” he states.
Diversification as Geopolitical Insurance
Natalia Malykh, in turn, notes that all stocks depend on geopolitics to varying degrees, making complete portfolio protection impossible, with the best option being non-speculative cases maintaining dividends. Typically, during drawdowns, investors part with these stocks last, she observes.
Tailoring Your Portfolio to Personal Risk Tolerance
Pavel Verevkin also states that universal portfolio structure recipes don’t exist. The expert believes optimal strategy depends on individual risk-reward profiles and investor psychological characteristics. “Conservative participants should maintain a base in high-credit-quality emitter bonds (AA-AAA level), understanding that such portfolios will almost certainly underperform equity-heavy portfolios if the conflict resolves. However, such portfolios would withstand 2026 much easier if negative foreign policy and macroeconomic conditions persist. If investors believe in peaceful scenarios, maintaining elevated equity share seems logical, though risk portion differentiation remains necessary within that allocation,” Verevkin commented.
Defensive Versus Aggressive Portfolio Components
He states that “defensive” segments can include solid fundamental stories that would likely see moderate growth with positive outcomes but would significantly outperform markets if negotiations prolong. “For example, such papers include Sberbank, Yandex, or Transneft. More aggressive portfolio blocks might comprise companies whose valuations suffered most and which possess greatest upside in peaceful scenarios but could stagnate at low levels or generate substantial investor losses if conflict continues. Such instruments include SPB Exchange, Gazprom, NOVATEK, Aeroflot, and other high-risk stories,” the KIT Finance expert believes.
Specific Opportunities in Current Market Conditions
Today, Moscow Exchange shares demonstrated relative strength – they rose, then declined very reluctantly. Alor Broker analyst Igor Sokolov paid particular attention to this development, advising investors to consider these shares. Additionally, the expert recommends examining “daughter” companies of Rosseti, which also show notable resilience during correction periods. “The general recipe for volatility periods involves forming stable portfolio portions from bonds or bond funds, then transferring portions from bonds to dividend papers during market panic. Currently, X5 shares also deserve attention: good dividends have been announced, but quotes aren’t rising, and below 2700 they can be acquired and held,” the expert notes.
Auto-Following as Strategic Component
From a private investor’s perspective, Sokolov advises allocating portfolio portions to auto-following proven historical strategies, preferably those not directly linked to equity markets: for instance, yuan futures or certain commodity markets. The expert believes this auto-following account could also serve as reserve during significant equity market declines and emerging opportunities to increase dividend paper allocations. Select top investors and replicate their trades. Simply connect the “Finam Auto-Following” strategy – its author handles everything else. Use index comparison features with Mosbirzha, RTS, and S&P 500 to gauge strategy effectiveness.
Personal Investment Ideas for Uncertain Times
Meanwhile, Telegram channel “Invest or Lose” author Yuri Kozlov states that geopolitical turbulence and uncertainty periods present ideal opportunities to prefer reliable stories less dependent on where the geopolitical pendulum ultimately swings.
“I’ll highlight three investment ideas I currently favor and briefly explain why:
1. Surgutneftegaz ap. Surgut prefs traditionally serve as ruble weakening hedges through dividends. According to company charter, preferred shares receive dividends amounting to no less than 10% of RAS net profit, while payments cannot be lower than ordinary shares. The company’s key feature remains enormous cash cushion, primarily held in foreign currency, with ruble revaluation included in annual net profit.
Dividend payments are charter-mandated, ensuring predictable investor income. Ruble depreciation potentially benefits financial results through currency reserve revaluation, possibly increasing dividends.
2. T-Technologies. This represents a bet on domestic, technologically-oriented markets less dependent on export commodity flows. The company demonstrates impressive growth, combining technological platform and financial institution characteristics. Its business model targets rapidly-growing domestic ecosystems already serving over 52 million clients. Net profit grew +44% (y/y) for 2025’s first nine months, with full-year 2025 growth expected at no less than +40% to 171 billion rubles, with ROE>30%!
Incidentally, new dividend policy proposes up to 30% of net profit distributions to shareholders, including quarterly dividends, representing additional benefits. Thus, shareholders receive both potential price appreciation and stable dividend income prospects, which will only grow in absolute terms yearly.
3. Transneft ap. This classic defensive asset features “fortress” qualities, with stability rooted in natural monopoly status. The company transports approximately 84% of all Russian oil, with state-regulated tariffs ensuring stable cash flow, independent from global oil market conditions. Against OPEC+ initiatives to increase cartel country production, Transneft gains additional benefits from rising production volumes. 2025 dividend yields could reach 13-15%,” Kozlov believes.
Looking Beyond Negotiations: Long-Term Market Perspectives
Nobody can currently predict negotiation outcomes with certainty. Nevertheless, successful Ukrainian crisis resolution would open new development prospects for Russian markets. This creates optimistic forecasts for long-term investors interested in stable returns and asset growth potential.
